Netherlands Polls: Major Parties and Central Topics in Snap Vote
Citizens in the Netherlands are set to possibly exchange the most rightwing administration in recent memory with a more centrist and commonsense alliance during early general elections scheduled for October 29.
The Situation and Its Significance
Early legislative elections were called after the collapse of the previous administration in the summer, when rightwing figure Geert Wilders pulled his PVV from an already unstable and largely ineffective governing alliance.
The PVV had achieved a surprising first place in the previous general election, and after prolonged talks formed a fragile four-party rightwing coalition with the BBB party, NSC party and center-right VVD.
However, Wilders' government allies considered him too controversial for the prime minister position, which ultimately went to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an anti-immigration polemicist who has required security detail for two decades, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.
Wilders finally caused the coalition breakup on 3 June after his partners refused to implement a far-reaching 10-point immigration restriction proposal that included using military forces to patrol borders, turning back all refugee applicants, shutting down asylum centers and sending home all Syrian refugees.
While support for the PVV has decreased, surveys suggest the rightwing, anti-Islam party is again likely to secure the largest representation in parliament. But, main Dutch political formations have all ruled out forming a government with Wilders.
At least 16 parties are forecast to gain representation, but none is projected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. Typically, the future Netherlands administration, generally an influential player on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after alliance talks that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Party Environment
The parliament contains 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a administration requires 76 seats to form a majority. No single party typically achieves this, and the Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments for over 100 years.
Parliament is elected every four years – sooner when governments collapse – through party-list system, based on an certified roster of candidates in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that secures less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
As in many European nations, Netherlands political life have been characterized in modern times by a significant drop in backing of the traditional governing groups from the moderate right and left, whose electoral support has shrunk from over four-fifths in the 1980s to barely two-fifths now.
In the Netherlands, this process has been accompanied by a remarkable multiplication of smaller parties: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a party for the over-50s, a young people's party, a party for animals, a basic income advocacy group, and a sports-focused party.
Major Parties and Main Issues
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, projected to lose up to eight of the thirty-seven mandates it secured last election. It advocates, among other policies, a complete freeze on asylum, male Ukrainian refugees to be sent home, the army to combat "urban violence", and an termination to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two political groups, of the centre-right and centre-left, are closely competing behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Dutch politics from the end of the seventies to the early 90s, and once more in the start of the millennium, but dropped to just five seats in the previous poll.
Nevertheless, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who entered politics just recently, the party has bounced back with a campaign emphasizing the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is projected for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the environmentalist party and the established social democratic party that is anticipated to become a full-blown merger, is projected to secure comparable seats, according to survey data.
Headed by the experienced former European commissioner its leader, it has made constructing additional housing its primary focus, and has controversially included a immigration limit of between 40,000 and 60,000 people a year in its manifesto.
Three additional groups appear set to be important players in the next legislature.
The center-left D66 is on course to increase representation – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its straight-talking youthful head, with a platform focused on residential construction (it plans to construct ten new urban centers) and an "individual basic benefit" for claimants.
The center-right VVD, the political group of the former prime minister (now NATO leader), is forecast to slump to at most 16 seats from its present twenty-four, with its leader, criticized of taking the party too far to the right, held responsible for its decline. It is promising corporate tax reductions and reduced social benefits.
The populist, hardline conservative JA21 is a spin-off from a different rightwing formation – the once popular, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and appears to be profiting from an exodus of supporters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both other partners in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the BBB and NSC, are projected to lose out, with the NSC not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The top issues so far have been immigration, with multiple – sometimes violent – protests against planned emergency reception centres for refugee applicants, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the nation is lacking four hundred thousand residences).
Potential New Government
Considering the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what alliances are feasible is just as important as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no significant group will partner with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
After the election, MPs first appoint an informateur, who seeks out potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been identified, a formateur, usually the head of the biggest prospective member, begins negotiating the government program. This can take months.
Various combinations look plausible, typically including a combination of political groups from moderate left and moderate right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus D66 and several smaller parties potentially including JA21.
